2019 Nigerian Presidential Elections – The Diagnosis and Probable Mathematics including state by state analysis
Diagnosis is a very important aspect of medicine. It is the point where the physician concludes on all he’s seen and heard so far from what patient tells the doctor, the doctor’s questions, what signs the doctor sees and elicits, physical examinations and investigations and decides on the next line of action for the patient.
Not to bore you with medical stuffs and jargons but forgive this writer because he’s a medical doctor and has seen it all. The purpose of this write up is political analysis.
It’s no longer news that the 2019 election is most likely going to be between President. Muhammadu Buhari and PDP candidate, former vice President . Atiku Abubakar.
Some people may have asked “shouldn’t we look the way of younger elements such as Omoyele Sowore, Fela Durotoye, Kingsley Moghalu or Tope Fasua? I’m a pragmatic realist. You don’t send a boy to do a man’s job. Some of these people just woke up one day, a year or two to presidential elections and decided to contest? It doesn’t and won’t work this way. Sowore and others for example don’t have the structure to become Nigeria’s President. Can Sowore for instance get people to man the over 120,000 polling units across Nigeria? How many governors will Moghalu’s party YPP produce? How many Reps and Senators? Who knows YPP in Akoko in Ondo State or Odeomu in Osun State?
I must confess in my analysis that the best candidate so far in terms of workable and realistic ideas is Kingsley Moghalu but he can’t win because he doesn’t have the structures. In reality people are tired of PDP and APC. What would have helped them is to drop their ego and present just ONE candidate. Here they can synergize and combine forces and work together as a team. They would have given PDP and APC a good run and even if they lose would have come second or a very strong third which would place them strongly for 2023 elections. I truly admire what they have done but courage is totally different from brawn just like strategy is different from energy.
The reality on ground- and I do not deceive myself- is that it is either Buhari or Atiku that will win the election. No other party has been able to build structures and penetrate all the 774 Local Governments in the nation. Even illiterates know the broom and the umbrella. Nomads may not be able to operate a smart phone but they know PDP and APC.
If you can’t make a difference, why bother? If you have a good war chest, you can try to win a State Assembly, House of Reps or even Senate as a neophyte, but Governorship or President, you can’t just come up as a neophyte just within one or two years.
In my book ” Why PDP continues to win elections “(2012), I stressed that unrealistic campaigns among the opposition was among why PDP continued to win. You could see candidates like Hope Uzodinma, Pat Utomi, Gani Fawehinmi ,Rochas Okorocha et al wanting to become president. They failed. Rochas is now a two term Governor of Imo State, Uzodinma became a Senator and could be the next governor of Imo, Utomi contested Delta governorship primaries and lost (I think he has better chance as a senator) and late Gani Fawehinmi would have won Senate Elections in Lagos if he contested, no matter the weapon of rigging fashioned against him. Sowore’s energy would have been better utilized if he was contesting as Governor of or Senator in his home state of Ondo. Now he will lose badly. A very very distant third or fourth awaits him.
I say categorically here none of these neophytes would get up to 100,000 votes if ever they manage getting 50,000 votes.
Most election predictors use ” battleground ” to indicate that neither party has significant advantage and it could tilt to any of the parties. A landslide is any party having 70% or above of the votes , comfortable is a party with 55%-69.9% of votes and a lean win is 50-55% of the votes.
I will analyse region by region and state by state.
Northwest: APC landslide
Katsina: APC landslide
Sokoto: APC landslide
Kebbi: APC landslide
Zamfara: APC landslide
Kano: APC landslide
Jigawa: APC landslide
Kaduna: APC comfortable victory
Northeast: APC Comfortable victory
Bauchi: APC landslide
Yobe: APC landslide
Borno: APC landslide
Gombe: APC landslide
Adamawa: Battleground. Could go either way but anyone who wins will get a lean win
Taraba: PDP Lean win
North central: APC lean win
Nassarawa: APC comfortable win
FCT: PDP lean win
Plateau: APC lean win. Could turn out to be comfortable
Niger: APC landslide
Kwara: Battleground. APC lean win not unexpected
Kogi: APC lean win
Benue: PDP lean win. Could end up being comfortable
Southwest: APC lean to comfortable win. APC will have between 55-60% of southwest votes and PDP 40-45% of votes.
Lagos: APC lean win
Ogun: APC lean to comfortable win
Oyo: APC lean to comfortable win
Osun: APC comfortable win
Ekiti: APC comfortable win
Ondo: APC comfortable win
Southeast: PDP comfortable to landslide win. Surely Buhari would do better than his 198,000 votes in 2015 and could pick close to a million votes but would be lucky to win 25% votes in just one or two states
Abia: PDP landslide
Anambra: PDP landslide
Enugu: PDP landslide
Ebonyi: PDP comfortable to landslide win
Imo: PDP comfortable win. APC may pick 25% votes here.
South South: PDP comfortable to Landslide win. Buhari would do better than the 418,000 votes he won in 2015.He could pick more than a million votes and could get 25% votes in one or two states.
Delta: PDP comfortable to landslide win
Edo: PDP lean to comfortable win. Being APC chairman state, APC should pick over 25% votes here
Bayela: PDP landslide win
Rivers: PDP landslide win. Confusion over APC’s lack of candidates for other elections could be its undoing here
Cross River: PDP comfortable to landslide win
Akwa Ibom: PDP comfortable win. APC could pick at least 25% votes here.
Overall winner: APC with about 7 million votes (plus or minus three million depending on voter turnout).
So expect President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC to win. Now let me congratulate the winner in advance.
I will now give reasons why PDP and Atiku will lose this election.
PDP as a party has had a terrible past and urgently needed rebranding. It needs a break from the past. It needed a “clean” seasoned widespread political name and politician to be its presidential candidate. Now it made three major mistakes that will cost it in this election.
1. Choosing Atiku as its presidential candidate. Believe it or not, the name Atiku has a lot of baggage for PDP. A man who has been accused rightly or wrongly of many evils and corruption in the past is not the candidate for a clean break from the past. It needed a break from the past. APC and Buhari have lost the goodwill they had in the past when they won 2015 elections. PDP failed to capitalize on this. A candidate like Tambuwal or Sule Lamido or Kwankwaso would have done that for PDP but not Atiku
2. PDP failed to use zoning to its advantage. The first time I knew deeply the full advantage of zoning was in 2003 Osun State governorship election. I’d boasted an AD win. But a senior friend challenged me on this and analysed fully what zoning was to me. In the end PDP won.(forget allegations of rigging). The wisest thing for PDP to have chosen the vice presidential candidate from the south west to give the people a sense of belonging after the region lost the PDP Chairmanship. The current VP is from the southwest and the best chance to win SW votes was for them to get a VP candidate from there. Their failure to choose their VP from SW will cost them SW votes and the elections in general.
3. The choice of Peter Obi. No doubt Peter Obi is a good politician but not the best choice of running mate for PDP because of some of his actions in the past and inability for him to galvanize full political support if political stalwarts in South east and other parts of Nigeria. No doubt Obi is a good politician but he is not the type that has widespread support of politicians and governors in the southeast. A politician like Senate Deputy President Ike Ekweremadu for instance would have been a better candidate. Now about three of the Southeast governors and other political stakeholders are either not supporting or are neutral in this election. In an election like this, a full support would have been of best advantage.
Disregard Nostra II to ur peril !
God rules in the affairs of men !!