August 3, 2014
The President, Commander-in-Chief,
Federal Republic of Nigeria,
RE: NATIONAL SECURITY AND PUBLIC SAFETY.
Once again, I am writing you another letter out of sense of PATRIOTISM and contribution towards a better Nigeria.
This is not another shot at shoving up my popularity or needless criticism of your administration and person, but in strict adherence to the provision of section 24, article “d’ and “e” which states and I quote;
“(d) make positive and useful contribution to the advancement, progress and well-being of the community where he resides; and
(e) render assistance to appropriate and lawful agencies in the maintenance of law and order”
Mr. President, I have warned that any nation which plays politics with its homeland security should be ready to kiss it sovereignty goodbye; it is just a function of time.
This is one thing that has characterized your administration with your aides, party chieftains and political allies culpable.
The bid to rationalize and blame the insurgency on the North or opposition is a ludicrous position which is not only diversionary, but unpatriotic, and amounts to an attempted equivocation of the mess we are in.
Sir, the dystopia-like state of our homeland security is dyphoric, and Mr. President, this is no Boko Haram, this is no Northern region making the country ungovernable for you. This is no religious war. This is an affront on our sovereignty and we are at war! A war executed covertly by the enemy from within.
Just like I did in my earlier correspondences to you, I will like to bring to the fore three (3) issues which has dominated our polity in the last four (4) months and will also determine the sanctity of our nation’s sovereignty.
UPSURGE IN INSURGENCY:
Mr. President, never in the history of this great country of ours have Nigerians felt so insecure and unsure of their well being.
The uncontained activities of insurgents and insurgency have further drifted us towards the precipice beyond our imagination which only decisive actions from you can save us as a nation from falling apart.
Your Excellency, while some of us appreciate the enormous danger confronting us as a nation, you seem not to. Your position and executive orders and pronouncements after any terror attack makes most Nigerians yearn for a more inspiring leadership and direction.
Sir, under your watch, you have allowed the decline in professionalism in the military and the Intelligence Community. The actions of various security agencies in recent times are now seen as politically motivated in a bid to satisfy you.
One of such is the alleged “Intel” (Intelligence Report) submitted to you earlier in the year by the Director General of the DSS, in which it was stated that Col. Umar (Rtd), the deposed Emir of Gwandu, Alhaji Al-Mustapha Jokolo, a Senator from the North and a retired Deputy Inspector General of Police also from the North were holding meeting regularly in a bid to destabilize your government.
Sir, this is the height of unprofessionalism, as the ex-DIG mentioned in the report died two (2) years ago. This I believe was done in a bid to satisfy your disposition, political ideology and desperation.
Mr. President, do not blame me for such allegations as many of your aides in a bid to retain their jobs, and political allies in a bid to sustain their political patronage with you have allegedly recruited people to campaign for you on social media with a mandate; blame the North and Islam for everything wrong in this country.
This I consider political stupidity as the votes of Christians and those from the South-South, South-East, and South-West alone will not get you re-elected. They also seem to be blind to the fact that we have Muslims in South-West and South-South.
Sir, when the upsurge in the insurgency seem uncontrollable and scary with various security agencies seemingly inadequate and dispassionate, I formed a group on social media named The Independent Intelligence Analysis and Terror Assessment Group (TIIATAG) with few of the best independent analytical minds around whose actions as members are informed by nothing but PATRIOTISM.
It is a seven-man group which includes a Swiss who in my estimation is more passionate about Nigeria than most Nigerians, a friend who has a military background due to his short stint as a cadet at the Nigerian Defense Academy. The rest are Nigerians who those in the Intelligence Community classify as analysts and “naturals”.
Your Excellency, this letter will present more of the analysis from the group with a few of my additions.
One of such of my analysis which formed the primary analysis of the group on the insurgency is that which blamed the upsurge on the government. This I will avail you Sir, but I must also add that events, patterns, and schematics of the insurgents brought about a secondary analysis.
Below is my analysis of the activities of BOKO HARAM, that is, the primary analysis:
It is no news that the sect was a creation of political subversion in Borno state, but how its activities went beyond Borno State is what I think I will be bringing to fore.
Based on my analysis of events, I am of a strong conviction that we have two (2) Boko Haram; the Late Muhammed Yussuf-led group, which I believe had links to/with Al-Qaeda and the “State owned” Boko Haram.
After the death, safe to say assassination of Muhammed Yussuf, just like any terror group or organization, it went comatose, inactive without direction and leadership.
Since it was not a properly structured or a compartmented terrorist organization, we witnessed the end of its activities for a while.
The first event that triggered off an era of politically induced state of insecurity was the October 1, 2010 bombing which I believe was executed to achieve two (2) things;
Discredit and create apathy against the North, and 2. Whip up sentiments for President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.
2. The 2 targets were met because most Nigerians felt the North was desperate and intolerant by losing out of power, and zoning, while President Goodluck Jonathan was seen as a humble man with whom God was so pleased.
The utterance, body language and position of the government of the day was what I believe brought about the resurrection or revival of the activities of the Late Muhammed Yussuf’s Boko Haram.
I think that was when Al-Qaeda link came into being.
Al-Qaeda, an organization that has perpetually sworn and committed to attacking America’s and Western interest saw a fertile ground.
A question with an obvious answer is “if you’re Al-Qaeda and want to attack US or Western interest in Africa, and you want to score high, where will you hit at?” Your obvious choice is as good as mine: NIGERIA, and when a country compromises its national security; you have a perfect target and scenario for successful campaign.
To test the capabilities, the readiness of the Late Muhammed Yussuf led Boko Haram, and to also test the effectiveness of the counter measures of the government and the country against terrorist attack(s) and terrorism, attacks were carried out in Jos on the 24th of December 2010 and the Mogadishu Barracks in Abuja on the 31st of December 2010.
The successful execution of those attacks on both targets got them the funding and collaboration for two (2) more targets; the Loius Edet House (The Force Headquarters) and the UN building of 2011. When Al-Qaeda saw it had achieved its goal, it closed shop in Nigeria…because the heat was turning on them.
Why I believe the aforementioned scenarios had Al-Qaeda written all over it is because it fits the profiled pattern of Al-Qaeda ops bearing in mind that Al-Qaeda activities does not aim at compromising the sovereignty of any host (attacked) nation.
Now “their” Boko Haram and by this, I mean the state-owned Boko Haram.
After the successful execution of the October 1 bombing, and getting the desired effect, the “cabal” initiated Phase II of their plan. With the coast clear for “their” son/choice to become the president, they felt being in charge can make them achieve their goal: Resource control.
The only way they can achieve that is through and with the balkanization of Nigeria. They have to polarize and cause such divisions across ethnic and religious line.
Contrary to what a lot believed, I am of a strong conviction that the post-election violence was stage 1 of the Phase II.
Being aware of the desperate utterances credited to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and the emotional outburst of Gen. Muhammadu Buhari(Rtd), “they” knew they had obvious culprits.
Those that will take the fall.
To initiate this plan, violence was instigated in two (2) states considered liberal and not volatile states – Bauchi and Kaduna states. Two states that the Governors had to reassert themselves at that time made them an obvious ally.
I will blame the President and the Presidency for the way a lot of Nigerians were quick to blame Gen. Muhammadu Buhari(Rtd) for the post-electoral violence.
It is common knowledge all over the world, the most critical part of any election is the point at which results are announced. Why did the President while acting on security reports from both the National Defense Council, and the National Security Council, both on which he sits as the Chairman in compliance and accordance with the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended), mobilized soldiers all across the federation, only for him to “demob” them before the announcement of results?
I believe the President/ Presidency bought the idea sold to him/it by the “Cabal”.
This will polarize us more along ethnic and religious divide. With a distinct demarcation along geopolitical zones, further balkanization is envisaged along the six geopolitical zones.
Because of the oil deposit in “their” zone (South-South), getting recognition from international community is projected to be an easy ride.
Banking on the apathy against the North and its leaders in the South because of the majority of the casualties were of Southern Nigeria extraction.
I believe at a point, the patriotic elements of the North, especially ex high ranking political office holders and Military personnel, who still have undying love for a united Nigeria, thwarted this move.
Hence, the “cabal” aborted the move and suddenly realized it will be a fierce political competition come 2015, there was need to abandon the project and either initiate a new agenda or upgrade the existing one, or a semblance of both.
This set into motion the adoption of a “hybrid” stage 2 of the Phase II.
Now the agenda and target is 2015. The North has to be schemed out once again.
To achieve this, the battered image of the North had to be exploited. To achieve this, “they” had to create a state of National insecurity with what is left of the reputation of the North being shredded off.
Thus, a group of bandits/outlaws assumed the identity of the Boko Haram. Since the target is 2015, and to discredit the North from taking a strong shot at the Presidency, it has to assume a religious and ethnic colouration.
In view of this, a NSA (National Security Adviser) who can be trusted and can align with “their” cause was brought on board. That explains why Gen. Owoeye Azazi got the NSA job. He’s from South-South, and was also alleged to be instrumental in the good political fortunes of Mr. President.
Rehabilitated militants were given lucrative security contracts and some were paid to keep threatening to renew violent hostilities and insurgency. This gave it an ethnic colouration.
Also Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor who at that period allegedly lost out at the Christian Association of Nigeria’s presidency was foisted on the body by President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan just to whip religious sentiments.
Since it is widely wrongly assumed it is a Muslim Northern Nigeria and Christian Southern Nigeria, and with the people of the Northern Nigeria being the collateral damage, the North will be angry at its leaders and elders, believing they are not doing enough to save them, the high level of endemic poverty, illiteracy, and economic retrogression will be brought to fore. And that their leaders and elders are culpable in the act of destabilizing the country. Southern Nigeria will have a deep mistrust for any presidential hopeful coming from the Northern region.
In all this, there is a move to make South-South a power bloc ahead of 2015.
This account for what I termed as N573b profit “they” made.
Some may be wondering why General Owoeye Azazi was sacked. Someone had to take the blame. Who has such training to take blame and accept responsibilities if not a General in the military?
All these were not, and cannot be achieved without the collaboration of some strong and influential Northern element.
Mr. President, the recent unsuccessful attack on General Muhammadu Buhari hugely indicts your kitchen cabinet, the PDP, Lai Muhammed, Olisa Metuh, Doyin Okupe, the APC and your numerous sympathizers and the APC on social media who kept trading blames, and not forgetting the immature ranting of Femi Fani Kayode and Sen. Musiliu Obanikoro.
They never for once knew they were laying a solid foundation for another phase of the insurgency.
Now with the insurgents that are hell-bent on destroying the sovereignty of our dear country, the scenario is perfect.
Sir, you are a President that is widely perceived desperate and will resort to any trick in and out of the book to shove up its popularity and an opposition which is equally desperate and bereft of ideas and values. They talk out of political recklessness, gross insensitivity, pythonic insincerity and lack of patriotism, trivialized our national security and play politics with it.
We make bold to say at TIIATAG that this gave the insurgents an idea, a decoy, more like a cover for their activities.
Now the attacks will be on key political figures from both the ruling party and opposition, and all those either affiliated or sympathetic to their cause.
Targets will be from North and South which is seen as ploy to plunge us into a civil war.
The good thing about this bad thing is they are not safe as there is no hiding place for them as politics is in the air and the race for 2015 is on.
We would have loved to give a list of potential targets but that will make this more than a “thinking outside the box” exercise.
We see a trend where personalities will be attacked and most will not be as lucky as Gen. Buhari and the blame game will begin.
Sir, this will get the polity heated up the more and will further affirm it had been a political motivated insurgency all alonthat oil has been proven to be in Borno, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe and Bauchi states and because the North is on the continental plain, for such exploration you need to dig 2000ft against the 800ft you dig in southern Nigeria. oil has been proven to be in Borno, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe and Bauchi states and because the North is on the continental plain, for such exploration you need to dig 2000ft against the 800ft you dig in southern Nigeria.
That brought us to a submission that “Boko Haram” was also to discredit the North as a friendly business zone because it will be more capital intensive to dikg in the North.
It was also stated in the analysis that once exploration starts up North, it is just a function of time for the oil in the south to dry up because the flow of crude down south will be cut with such exploration as the Northern region positioned on a continental plain.
Mr. President, these facts also made us at TIIATAG believe some multinationals involved in oil exploration in the country are liable of complicity in the insurgency plaguing the country and also countries like France and United States of America.
France was suspected due to the role it played in the acquisition of Bakasi peninsula for Cameroon and once oil exploration starts up north, the oil flow down south which by extension flow to Bakasi will dry up.
Also the uncooperative stance of the Cameroonian forces and government with the Nigerian forces and government on the war of insurgency further embolden our assertion.
Sir, the United States of America was suspected because of its “Chinaphobia”( fear of China’s increasing influence) in the world especially in Africa.
These are possibilities we looked at and also investigations into the material based on the reserves US-1Z000C/T**7/COM/41111-UN/US. There are indication if our conscience is allowed to quote that broadband disqo of the West against the East is already happening, with the United States pushing for juicy vested interest. The North approbation is actually grassed up in some decoy.
Sir, while the United States of America has been accused of meddling with the affairs of any country it supports with aids and often times dictates the form of government, government actions and foreign policies, China does not, it gives such country the free will of how to utilize such grants, come in to help develop infrastructure, not involved or suspected of any espionage activities, and respects the sovereignty of such countries.
France is a country which has lost the stronghold on most of its colonies and it national oil exploration company (ELF) is no more a player in the ever expanding oil resources in Africa.
Mr. President, to validate this position of ours, I will be asking you a question; “why is it that it is countries with improved and fledging ties with China have their national security under serious threat? Why is it Nigeria, Kenya and South Sudan?”
Your Excellency, In any case of abduction/kidnap, the chances of rescuing the victim(s) and getting them to safety is almost zero after seventy-two (72) hours, so for this government to be this calm about rescuing the abducted Chibok girls leaves us at TIIATAG believing there is more to it. This is beyond cluelessness.
Sir, during our deliberation in our virtual “situation room”, we saw the need for an independently run Intel to be initiated, as it was glaring certain things were not right. We also affirmed that Intel was scarce but analysis pointed out that things did not add up.
Mr. President, at a point during the analysis, we believed the kids are held up in a safe location thinking they were being abducted by Boko Haram who are more of agents of the state or mercenaries.
Sir, before this is rubbished as a wild conjecture, such view was emboldened in us bearing in mind that there was a simulation exercise conducted in the Nigerian Defense Academy in 1997, which was exactly such as the Chibok episode, and what was confounding about the exercise was that not all cadets were allowed into the simulation premises.
Mr. President, it is safe to say that those cadets are now commissioned officers as we speak and we believe the simulation exercise was extended to State Security Service and Nigerian Police and they are the primarily classified the “enemy within”
Your Excellency, though outreach of this analysis falls under marginal purviews, and we are sure it is not the cardinal interest at work, Nigeria is now a guess-field for Nigerians, while the game makers are at peace with themselves.
Mr. president, In times like this, whether or not the government is fingered is out of the question, what is paramount is who and what is the motive. Shekau being a minimal factor exists in variables in the game, and the coefficient is a lapse that expendability can be used as a nominal assets
Case in point, the Bornu Elders’ fore-knowledge of the operations, movement and direct correspondence of realities in the Abductor’s settlements camps, show the complicities’ of this drama. But all the same, with the little resources at our disposal, the Boko Haram issue is a smokescreen, an avalanche of plausible deniability!
Sir, I know there is a Shekau, but who is this Shekau?
Mr. President, I carried out an independent analysis of the video released by “Shekau” after my attention was drawn to one vital point and I can boldly say this Shekau is not of Hausa extraction.
Please I crave the indulgence of all who have seen the video to go watch again and confirm or discredit this assertion of mine.
These were what gave him away and Mr. president, I will implore you, your Services Chiefs and Intelligence Chiefs to look out for this few highlighted period on the timeline of the video and his pronunciations
At 4 mins 17” when he mentioned Ibadah
4 mins 36” when he mentioned al-janaat
4 mins 56” when he mentioned Al-Quran
5 mins 13” when he mentioned Obama and George Bush
5 mins 30”-32” when he mentioned Jonathan and Allah Akbar
5 mins 42” when he mentioned Al-Shatan
5 mins 57”-6 mins 10” his Quranic recitation
6 mins 49” when he mentioned Allah and Ibraheem
6 mins 59”-7 mins when he mentioned Ibraheem
19 mins 30” when he mentioned trillion
19 mins 42”- 20 mins ………..
20 49” when he mentioned Allah
40 mins 30”-37” when he said “everyone of you”
41 mins 01”- 41 mins 30” when he mentioned constitution, defined democracy and said he was going to enthrone a “government by Allah”
Beyond the fact that his intonation or speech was not heavily accentuated there should have been a shout of “Allah Akbar”
Sir, also at TIIATAG from a more academic approach and looking at past episodes of kidnaps all over the world, for Shekau not to have shown any of the girls on his video in which he claimed responsibility for the abduction calls for caution. It’s common knowledge that terrorist or kidnappers always show their victims to corroborate their claims that they have the victims in their possession which Shekau did not do. It’s either he doesn’t really have them but wants to latch up on the issue to gain more notoriety or someone else does.
An unknown party using Boko Haram and the insurgency as smokescreen to carry out it agenda.
$1 BILLION LOAN REQUEST:
Mr. President, in a bid to justify the call for the loan, the Minister of State for Defense, Sen. Musiliu Obanikoro was alleged to have stated that the Nigerian military have not purchased any weapon in the last twenty-five (25) years.
Your Excellency, this is nothing but a lie and such deliberate misinformation smirks desperation and a great disservice to Nigerians and also bringing the values and integrity of the military and past leaders to disrepute.
Sir, one thing I detest is the rate our public office holders come to public domain and exhibit huge knowledge gap on issues of grave national importance and distort facts.
I can confidently tell you that the Nigerian Army took delivery of Donnover helicopters during the ECOMOG ops in 1991 in Liberia and Alpha Jets were also purchased and deployed as well.
Also the regime of Late Gen. Sani Abacha massively equipped the military which brought about the creation of an amphibious unit. Many amphibious tanks were bought and were deployed to Sierra Leone 1997.
Mr. President, MiGs were also bought.
During the regime of Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, in 2001, many AK-47 were bought and distributed to the men of the Nigerian Military and Nigerian Police.
At the Russian Air Show of 2008, AVM Paul Dike in the company of AVM Oluseyi Petirin made commitment on behalf of the Federal Government for more fighter planes.
The recently downed Nigerian Airforce helicopter in Borno was a Mi-35 and the production of the Mi-35M commenced in 2005.
Sir, the question is “did we buy the helicopter years before it was manufactured or it was acquired on a leasehold from Libya after the fall of Ghadaffi’s regime?”
Mr. President, is there a SNIE (pronounced as snee), I mean Special National Intelligence Estimates or NIE (National Intelligence Estimates) which formed the need for $1bn to fight or put an end to the insurgency?
Sir, in the absence of such, it is safe to assume this government is largely filled with people who are spendthrift and light fingered.”
Mr. President, I will never want to be classified as an arm-chair critic who only criticize and never proffer solutions. This makes it imperative for me to come up with recommendations which I believe will help restore sanity and order in our country.
Your Excellency, here are the recommendations as highlighted below:
The immediate removal of the Director General of the SSS, Mr. ita Ekpeyong and the Director of Publicity Mrs. Marylyn Ogar. These two in the last five (5) years have been found wanting and unprofessional to be an Intelligence Officer.
The closure of all borders with Cameroon and suspension of all diplomatic ties until it is proven beyond reasonable doubt that the country has no role in the insurgency plaguing us as a nation.
Restriction on ties and bilateral relations with France and United States of America until it is proven both countries played no roles in the insurgency as well.
A direct order should be issued from your office to the Chief of Defense Staff and the Chief of Army Staff to investigate the cadets who participated in the simulation exercise in Nigerian Defense Academy in 1997 to ascertain who they are? How many are still in service? How many have gone rogue?
A polygraph test to be carried out on top echelon of the Military and Intelligence community to sieve out the “enemy within” as it is believed that no operative in Nigeria had such training on beating the polygraph machine.
The immediate sack of Sen. Musiliu Obanikoro as the Minister of State for Defense. He is not fit to hold any public office. Such misconduct is intolerable in public service and nation building.
There should be an air patrol/surveillance especially at night with night vision aid gadgets since it is now established the insurgents move around in the dead of the night.
The JTF sector commander, the GOC and all relevant office to have deployed spotters. Spotter is a military term for someone who sits and waits (usually fairly concealed) for something notable to come along and then informs the rest of his group.
A spotter also spots targets for a gunner (for instance on artillery) they will give distance and position information to the gunner so targets can be neutralized quicker.
The SSS and the CTU are to provide the government agencies and emergency officials with threat assessment, as well as utilizing news outlets and social media networking resources to notify the public. They should also outline steps to take in response to a particular terrorist threat.
Unscheduled visits to troops in Yobe, Borno and Adamawa states by Your Excellency will boost the morale of the rank and file which is essential in our quest to win the war on terror.
An audit and investigation into the welfare of the personnel in the JTF in those states.
The CTU should be decentralized with each state having its unit. It should be under the supervision of the Governor. There should be a secured comm.-channel between each units and the Central command at the NSA’s office.
The decentralization will enhance intelligence gathering and prompt response from the outfit.
The enlargement of the Nigerian Military. This can and will be achieved by relaxing the entry requirements into the Military through the DSSC (Direct Short Service Commissioning). The first move will be by extending the entry age limit into the Military to 32 from 30 as obtainable in the United Kingdom and the United States of America.
Mr. President, emphasis on the professionals, who have spent so much time in the civil setting and environment.
This will enlarge the Military and will bring about a civilized Military.
From these set, assets should be identified and sent to the Nigerian Army Intelligence School in a bid to increase the size of the Intelligence Corp of the Military.
Your Excellency, same directive and exercise should be extended to the SSS. The last recruitment drive by the SSS where emphasis was laid on educational background is unserious. Not even the CIA and MOSSAD get their best hand through such academic exercise.
A clamp down on the activities of those who are playing politics with the insurgency.
Asari Dokubo, Pa Edwin Clark, Femi Fani Kayode, Olisah Metuh, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Shiek Gumi, Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor, Nasir el-Rufai, and Lai Muhammed to mention a few should be issued a stern warning and restricted by the SSS until they recant all their past unguarded utterances and refrain from further making such.
Special ops team on a dedicated intelligence wavelength reporting straight to the president should independently observe all counterinsurgency actions n plans and report directly to the president.
Mr. President, I am not claiming to be the all knowing guy, but I am of utmost conviction that if some, if not all the recommendations aforementioned are implemented, it is a function of time for Nigerians to be free again.
Your Excellency, if the recommendations here are given consideration, you will not only repair the country, but will be laying a solid foundation for the establishment of social security, modern age national security and premium on public safety.
You will be fulfilling one of your obligations as spelt out in Section 14, sub section 2, article “b” which state and I quote; “the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary role of government: and”
I know after going through this, I might be accused of treason by some, I might be accused of breaching public peace, but some might see it as PATRIOTISM and zeal to serve my fatherland, which to the best of my conscience, is.
God help me
God Bless Nigeria.
Gen. Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (Rtd)
Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo (Rtd).
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd)
Gen. T.Y Danjuma (Rtd).
Gen. AbdusalamiAbubakar (Rtd).
Lt. Gen. Aliyu Gusua (Rtd).
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (former Vice-President)
Sen. David Mark. (President of the Senate).
Aminu Tambuwal ( Speaker House of Representatives).
Col. Sambo Dasuki (Rtd). NSA.
Col. Abubakar Umar (Rtd).
Egnr. Abdulkadir . A. Kure
Bishop Mathew Hassan Kukah
Pastor Tunde Bakare.
Egnr. Nuhu Gidado
Ibrahim Garba Wala
Funke Tega Phillips
Oluwadare Samuel Yerokun
The Punch Newspaper
Daily Trust Newspaper.
– Adeyemi Saka (Twitter – @patriot_yemisak) writes from Lagos, Nigeria